Last Tuesday, the Israeli media broadcast a video of its soldiers placing a national flag inside Lebanese territory, for the first time since the start of the ground incursion, on the 1st. “Attention to the promenade Iranian (walk), in front of [la cooperativa agrícola israelí] Avivim”, one of them is heard saying. In the recording you can see the rubble of the Iranian Garden, a kind of propaganda amusement park in Marun al Ras that was inaugurated in 2010 by the then Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and in which a figure of Qasem Soleimani (the powerful Iranian general assassinated by the CIA and Mossad in 2020) pointed from a height towards the enemy, Israel, which can be seen clearly precisely because it is very close. The geolocation of the video shows that the soldiers penetrated 700 meters into Lebanese soil, almost 200 meters from the first house in the town. Energy Minister Eli Cohen announced, instead, that troops had “occupied” Marun al Ras (very symbolic for Israelis for their impotence there against Hezbollah in the 2006 war) and “destroyed houses from which they launched projectiles.” anti-tank attack against Israeli civilians.
It is impossible to know if it is true. Information on the ground about what is happening in the almost deserted fighting zone comes from Hezbollah media, the Israeli army and the Israeli military correspondents it has embedded. But the raising of the flag and the debate over the seizure of the town show Israel’s desire to present its achievements in the invasion to its public and has opened a debate among experts about whether it is moving slowly due to decision or inability, given the armed resistance. that you are finding.
Andreas Krieg sees “a little bit of both.” He is an analyst of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa and an associate professor at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, and considers it “surprising” that the Israeli Armed Forces have been “incapable” in almost two weeks “of taking Hezbollah’s main strongholds right next to the border,” even just half a kilometer from the Blue Line, the internationally recognized dividing line monitored by UN troops.
The army, which has also tried to penetrate from the southwest, already has four divisions deployed (including the first of reserves), which is estimated at around 15,000 soldiers. So far, it has advanced hundreds of meters through the center, in Odeiseh, Marun al Ras and Yarun, where images reveal a pattern of destruction similar to that of Gaza.
“No one expected a quick takeover of territory, because the terrain does not allow it,” but the Israeli army “has only managed to take over two small villages between the Mediterranean and the Golan,” says Krieg. The area, with green peaks, is as hard for the movement of armored vehicles as it is ideal for the ambushes that the militiamen have been laying: a mixture of surprise attacks for hours, even preventing the evacuation of the wounded. This is where the overwhelming aerial and technological superiority that Israel deploys in other parts of Lebanon – with dozens of daily bombings -, Gaza, Syria or Yemen is diluted.
For Krieg, it is more of a “war of attrition” being fought. That is, many casualties, little territory. Israel claims to have killed 450 Hezbollah militants (which is not disclosing the number) and lost eight soldiers. It was a very high number for the first two days, but there have been no casualties since then. “He is moving forward extremely carefully, because he understands that Hezbollah’s will to fight is not broken and he is prioritizing protecting his forces.” As the mothers who demonstrated in the nineties calling for the withdrawal from southern Lebanon know, the return of soldiers in coffins can easily undermine the majority social support that the invasion has today.
David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at think tank International Crisis Group recalls that Israeli troops are moving more slowly than in the 2006 war, which lasted 34 days, “which shows that Hezbollah still has the capacity to fight, despite having suffered significant military blows.” Israel has been forced to make tactical withdrawals (which Hezbollah celebrates in its communications), without acquiring objectives in the territory of great strategic value.
Wood also remembers an aspect that is often forgotten. Hezbollah had never suffered such hard blows since it was born in the 1980s, but in 2024 it has a structure, infrastructure and combat training in Syria that it lacked in the 2006 war, in which “with fewer men and arsenal― managed to claim victory. “There is also its network of tunnels, the size of which is unknown, and the long-range missiles, which it may decide to use later.”
The debate about how much there is of impotence and how much of choice in the Israeli advance is contributed by the fog surrounding its real intentions. At the beginning of the ground campaign, the army spoke of “limited, localized and selective incursions”, with no intention of reaching Beirut or penetrating the southern cities. The objective: to distance Hezbollah from the border and undermine its capabilities so that the 60,000 evacuees from border towns in Israel can return to their homes. Some were already seen returning home these days after the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, which ends on the 23rd.
Beheading of Hezbollah
But the enthusiasm for the beheading of Hezbollah (and in particular the assassination of its leader, Hasan Nasrallah) has generated in Israel a feeling of “now or never” that goes further. That the time has come to take advantage of the military momentum and the political context to change the balance of forces with Iran. The carte blanche of the United States allows it in particular, at least until January 20, when the winner of the elections held next month: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will take office.
The president of the United States, Joe Biden, not only defends the land incursion, but is barely promoting the 21-day ceasefire that he proposed with France. In addition to continuing to send Israel billions of dollars in weapons and diplomatically shielding it for the invasion of Gaza and, now, Lebanon, it has embraced a rhetoric of closed support that it did not use months ago.
The feeling prevails in the Israeli political and military establishment that any victory today will be hunger tomorrow if it is not accompanied by the establishment of the “security strip” south of the Litani River, like the one it maintained between 1982 and 2000. Yosi Yehoshua, the military commentator of the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, predicted this Wednesday that the operation will last “a few more weeks, after which Israel can begin to cautiously allow residents to return to their homes, with an agreement that will not resemble UN resolution 1701, but rather in the line of clearing southern Lebanon of population. In other words, create a kind of safe zone beyond the border with Israel ensuring its compliance.”
One of the problems is that “the appetite is awakened by eating,” as Ghasan Salamé, former Lebanese minister and UN negotiator in Iraq and Libya, pointed out in an interview published this Thursday by the Lebanese newspaper L’Orient Le Jour. “The goal initially may only be to degrade as much as possible Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal, in particular the 600 to 700 long-range missiles that the Israelis believe are in their possession, and to be able to bring back the inhabitants of the Upper Galilee. But if the strength of the resistance in Lebanon is greatly degraded, if Arab passivity in the face of the campaign remains the same as it has been for the past three weeks, and international pressure remains non-existent, then it may be that the Israelis will become emboldened and tempted to dominate the southern part of Lebanon in one way or another […] or transform their military achievements into long-term political advantages.”
This is what this week’s events and statements also point to. On the one hand, the three consecutive days of attacks on the blue helmets, in some cases “intentional”, in the words of the UN mission itself, whose withdrawal to five kilometers from the border has just been requested by the Israeli authorities after years of calling them inefficient. A blue helmet was hit by a bullet this Friday and another position was significantly damaged by a nearby bombing. He is the fifth injured in 72 hours. On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went further, in a “speech to the Lebanese,” urging them to rise up against Hezbollah. It is, basically, a call for regime change that exceeds the formal objectives of the campaign.