Vugledar, or what little remains standing in this municipality, is already in Russian hands. The Ukrainian High Command in this region of the Donetsk province confirmed this Wednesday the withdrawal of its troops, after various conflict analysis centers and videos published by Russian military accounts already indicated on Tuesday that the invader had controlled the urban center. . Vugledar has been a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, of the evolution of Russian tactics and, above all, of the thousands of casualties among the troops and their armor that the Kremlin is suffering in this war to achieve limited geographical advances.
Russian land campaigns to conquer Vugledar, with 15,000 inhabitants before the war, began in November 2022. One of the main moments for Russian military embarrassment happened in January and February 2023 in this town. Images of columns of dozens of burned-out Russian armored vehicles, held back by millimeter minefields, went around the world. In the siege of those months, Russia lost an entire regiment in a matter of a week, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, with daily casualties of up to 400 of its men. The general in command of the Russian offensive on Vugledar, Rustam Muradov, was dismissed in April of that year.
Also the Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, which succeeded the 155th, was practically disintegrated. According to the defense analysis group Oryx, Russia would have lost 6% of its armor during the entire war here alone.
Russia’s adaptation to war
But Vugledar is also proof of Russian tactical adaptation to war. The frontal assaults have passed away and the invader is applying a slower, but safer operation in all sectors of the Donetsk front to pocket the defending army, thus preventing any of the phalanxes from moving forward and being isolated. This has been the case in the lightning advance that began this summer on Vugledar, but it is also being replicated in other municipalities besieged by Russia in Donetsk: Chasiv Yar, Kurajove and especially, Pokrovsk, a key city in the Ukrainian rear, currently seven kilometers away. of the enemy.
The Khortitsia High Command, the coordination center for military operations in this sector of Donetsk, has reported that the withdrawal of its men in Vugledar seeks to “preserve troops and combat equipment, and take positions for future actions.” Images released by Russian military accounts between September 30 and October 1 already showed that Kremlin troops had accessed most of this municipality. The Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade, responsible for its defense in the last two years, assured on Tuesday that they have not yet received orders to withdraw.
Vitali Kononuchenko, a Ukrainian defense analyst who has followed in detail the evolution of the front in this town, explained this Wednesday in the NV media that the majority of the 72nd Brigade had already abandoned it. Kononuchenko has indicated that the Russians have taken advantage of the days in which troops stationed on the front line were rotated to break their lines. An officer from the Ukrainian 59th Motorized Brigade on the Pokrovsk front indicated to EL PAÍS on October 8 that the Russians probably have infiltrated or tapped the Ukrainian communication systems because they have specialized in carrying out surprise attacks when the rotation of troops is taking place. soldiers.
Deep State, the Ukrainian reference organization for updating the war map, declared the municipality lost on Tuesday. The Institute for the Study of War, an American organization that periodically monitors the invasion, also stated on Tuesday that “Russian forces have probably taken control of Vugledar.” This institute considers that this victory will not bring great strategic benefits for the Kremlin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in September that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has forced the invader to transfer 40,000 soldiers who were supposed to be on fronts inside Ukraine to this Russian province. Military personnel interviewed in recent weeks by EL PAÍS assure that in the battles being fought in Donetsk they have not yet detected a reduction in enemy assets. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havriliuk said at a conference in kyiv on October 1 that recent attacks on Russian arsenals have drastically reduced the supply of ammunition for invading artillery. Havriliuk assured that compared to the beginning of 2024, when the Russian artillery superiority was eight to one, it has gone to a superiority of three to one this October.
The “king of war”
US Reserve General Robert Dyess confirmed yesterday at the International Defense Industry Forum in kyiv that the war in Ukraine has shown that “artillery is once again the king of war.” Dyess confirmed that the lack of clear air superiority on both sides, thanks to powerful anti-aircraft defense systems, and the mutual ability to nullify drones, has made the howitzers the protagonists.
Despite these words, the truth is that the Russian Air Force has increased its power with attacks with guided aerial bombs that are being decisive in all sectors of the front. Mijailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics defense think tank, said Ukraine urgently needs to be able to arm its fighter jets with guided bombs to destroy the invader’s command posts, arsenals and logistics on Russian soil.
Russian progress in Donetsk province coincides with the development of a “plan for victory” that Zelensky presented to US President Joe Biden at the White House last week. This document, which has been kept secret, should be accepted by Ukraine’s allies this fall. Zelensky has reiterated that the outcome of the war will be decided in the coming months. The Ukrainian president has stated that if this plan is not supported by his partners, his country will not have room to defend itself and reach future peace negotiations with a strong position.
