In less than three days of fighting and with the defenses of the Syrian regime falling, the Salafist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and other allied rebel organizations have managed to penetrate Aleppo. It is the first time that forces opposed to the government of Bashar al-Assad have set foot in the second largest Syrian city since the end of December 2016, when the evacuation of the last Aleppine rebel strongholds was completed, after a siege that began the previous year with the Russia’s entry into the Syrian civil war to prop up the regime.
The command of the operation called “Deterring Aggression” and the rebel groups participating in it published videos on social networks of militiamen penetrating the western neighborhoods of the city such as New Aleppo, The 3,000 Homes or Al Hamadaniya. In some of them they were visibly happy about the “liberation” of Aleppo and asked the population to help them get rid of the “criminal regime” of Assad.
The advance of HTS and other groups has been totally unexpected: in less than 72 hours they have managed to move to the west a front that was practically frozen since the ceasefire agreed upon by Russia and Turkey – supporters of both sides – in 2020. From Idlib , a rebel stronghold, have advanced almost 20 kilometers until entering Aleppo; To the south of the city, they have even penetrated almost 25 kilometers into regime territory, securing the cut of the M-5, the highway that connects with Damascus and a key line for the Government’s supply. And even further south, a third advance threatens the city of Saraqib, on the same M-5. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), which has informants on the ground, more than 50 towns have been conquered by the rebels.
At the same time, the rebels have been capturing dozens of tanks, armored vehicles and artillery pieces that the regular Army abandoned in their hasty flight, causing a snowball effect in which as they advance they become a better armed force. analyzes Ömer Özkizilcik, from the think tank Atlantic Council. The key, this expert adds, is “the complete collapse of the defensive lines” of the regime and its allies.
Since 2015, the key for the Assad regime to regain control of much of Syria’s territory has been air support from Russia and, on the ground, the deployment of pro-Iran militias, as well as advisors from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and militants of the Hezbollah militia, which according to the OSDH were supposedly withdrawn in recent months to be deployed in Lebanon due to the confrontation with Israel. “It is now clear that Russia and Iran are much weaker than expected. Russia because it has redeployed to Ukraine and Iran due to Israeli bombing. The economy of the regime [sirio] It is also in a very delicate situation, so its resources are fewer. And the rebels have prepared well for it,” says Özkizilcik.
Several sources, including the OSDH, maintain that the offensive has been in preparation for three months and that Türkiye has stopped it until now. Ankara is the main supporter and supporter of the Syrian National Army, made up of factions formerly attached to the Free Syrian Army, and which are currently participating in the “Deter Aggression” offensive. Without the tacit support or at least the acquiescence of the Turkish authorities, it is unthinkable that these factions would have joined the offensive of HTS, a former affiliate of Al Qaeda in Syria, according to these sources.
However, the regular Syrian Army assures that its forces “continue to face the major attack launched by terrorist organizations”, to which they claim to have caused “great losses”, which amount to “hundreds of dead and wounded” as well as the destruction of numerous vehicles and drones. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov denounced the offensive this Friday as an “attack on Syrian sovereignty” and expressed his hope that the Assad regime will soon regain control of the lost area.
According to the OSDH, at least 231 combatants have died: 144 rebel forces and 87 Syrian soldiers and members of pro-Iran militias. And the fighting is being very tough inside Aleppo, where HTS broke through with the use of vehicle bombs driven by suicide bombers, drone attacks and artillery. According to the official Syrian news agency SANA, four civilians were killed in a rebel artillery attack that hit a student residence in the university city. David Carden, from the UN humanitarian coordination office for Syria, stated that at least 27 civilian deaths have been recorded and recalled that “civilians and civilian infrastructure are not targets and are protected by international law.” Most of the civilian deaths have occurred in bombings by Russia and the Syrian regime on rebel-held towns: there were about 60 airstrikes on Thursday and at least 23 on Friday.
