In Lebanon, “civilian suffering is reaching unprecedented levels,” after almost a month of Israeli bombings that have killed more than 2,300 people and displaced 1.2 million people, a fifth of the population, from their homes. This was said this Wednesday by the United Nations coordinator in the country, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, with language reminiscent of the statements about the Israeli invasion of Gaza and highlights the deterioration of the situation in a country where the World Organization Health sees “very high” the risk of an outbreak of cholera, like the one that occurred in the Strip.
At the moment, Lebanon is not going through a humanitarian crisis, the proportion of the population that has had to flee their homes is lower than in Gaza (practically all of it and several times) and some parts remain completely untouched by the bombings. But the daily number of deaths from Israeli attacks is similar (between several dozen and a hundred) and, as the UN coordinator recalls, “the scope and intensity of the exchanges of fire continues to expand.”
Like this Tuesday, with the first Israeli bombing against a predominantly Christian area in the north of the country. The airstrike left at least 21 dead, half of them women and children, according to the Ministry of Health. The UN human rights office has called for an investigation: it was a rented house that housed displaced people in the town of Aitou.
Or this Wednesday, with fifteen attacks in the city of Nabatiye, in the south of the country, which has caused at least 16 deaths, including its mayor, Ahmad Kahil, at a meeting of the crisis cell in a municipal building. An aerial video also shows the disappearance of an entire village (identified as Mhaybib, one kilometer from the border and which was abandoned by its inhabitants) after several controlled explosions, one of which (from a tunnel) was celebrated by Israeli soldiers. in a video that they have spread on social networks.
The situation currently translates into almost deserted areas (the south, the Becá Valley and Dahiye) and the rest of the country with a routine of families moving with their belongings, businesses closed everywhere and more presence of soldiers in the nerve centers. . France has just sent 2.5 tons of emergency medical aid to the Lebanese army, according to a statement from its Embassy in Beirut this Wednesday.
It is for all these reasons that Hennis-Plasschaert has recalled that “civilians and civil infrastructure must be protected at all times”, that “violations of international humanitarian law are absolutely unacceptable” and that – beyond specific cases – “the Military solutions will not and cannot provide security to either side of the Blue Line”, the dividing line between Israel and Lebanon that the international community takes as a reference, although it is not a formal border.
The Institute of International Finance, similar to a global banking association that represents hundreds of entities, has just published its projections for the Lebanese economy for the remainder of the year and 2025. It proposes two scenarios. The most optimistic consists of a territorial deepening of the Israeli invasion, with hostilities until the middle of next year, in which the GDP would fall by 7%.
In the most pessimistic, the contraction would exceed 20% and 1.2 million people (approximately the same as those who are displaced today) would leave the country. It would be an extension of the conflict in time and in the number of actors, with the direct involvement of Iran and perhaps the United States, which has just sent a THAAD anti-missile battery to Israel. It will be operated by American soldiers, in what – although it has gone relatively unnoticed – represents their first direct military involvement on Israeli soil since the Gaza war began in October 2023. Precisely, months before, when Washington installed on the coasts of the With a temporary dock for the entry of humanitarian aid (and which it removed early because it was being carried away by the current), the Pentagon insisted that its soldiers would not set foot in Gaza.
Hopes for a near ceasefire, moreover, have evaporated. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made it clear this Wednesday that negotiations to cease hostilities “will only take place under fire.” And Hezbollah’s number two, Naim Qasem, insisted the day before that there will be no truce in Lebanon without a parallel in Gaza and that, just as “the Israeli enemy bombs all over Lebanon,” his men “have the right, in position of defense, to do the same in the north, center and south” of the Jewish State.
This Wednesday, Hezbollah posted videos on its Telegram account presenting two missiles that it had never mentioned in its communications: the Nasr 1 and the Qader 2. It describes the first as “a precision ground-to-ground projectile developed by resistance engineers.” Islamic” with a margin of error on target of five meters and a remarkable ability to overcome both Israel’s air defense systems and their signal interference to make it difficult to guide the projectiles. Interference is noticeable in northern Israel, southern Lebanon and even on the nearby island of Cyprus, where GPS navigation systems, such as Google Maps, often incorrectly show the location of airports in nearby countries, making it impossible to follow a route.
For four days, partially coinciding with Yom Kippur, the most solemn Jewish holiday, the Israeli army did not bomb Beirut. According to Israeli media, at the request of the President of the United States, Joe Biden, although it is not clear whether it refers only to the city (which has already been attacked three times in the offensive that began a month ago) or also to Dahiye, the almost deserted Shiite suburb south of the city where the leadership of Hezbollah was hiding, which Israel has been eliminating.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nayib Mikati assured on Tuesday that he had “certain guarantees” from the Biden Administration to “reduce the level of Israeli escalation on Beirut and Dahiye.” Israel, in any case, resumed its bombing there this Tuesday. Three, in a southern suburb, Haret Hreik, from where columns of black smoke could be seen rising into the sky, minutes after the army demanded that the population immediately evacuate the marked areas.
As often happens in the face of information in which he may appear lukewarm, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came out to “make it clear” that they will continue to “hit Hezbollah mercilessly anywhere in Lebanon, including Beirut.” “Everything is done based on operational considerations. We have demonstrated it recently and we will continue to demonstrate it in the coming days,” he said when visiting the victims of the attack with the most deaths (four) and injuries (more than 60) in a year of clashes with Hezbollah, due to the impact of a drone against a military installation near the city of Haifa.
New attack against Unifil in southern Lebanon
The blue helmet mission in Lebanon, Unifil, reported this Wednesday a new, “apparently deliberate” attack by the Israeli army against one of its positions in the south of the country. A Merkava tank opened fire on a surveillance tower, damaging it and destroying two surveillance cameras. “Once again, we see direct and apparently deliberate fire against a Unifil position,” the mission lamented in a statement, just hours after the Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, assured that his country “considers the Unifil activities and has no intention of harming the organization or its staff”, so it will continue to make “every effort” to prevent it. Last week, the blue helmets in the area (including hundreds of Spaniards) They suffered several days of consecutive Israeli attacks, some deliberate, they reported just when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked them to withdraw immediately for their own safety.