With just over three weeks until the November 5 elections, the vice president and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, is unable to fully shore up the support she needs among Latino voters, the population group that is emerging as key to deciding who will be the winner in these elections. In contrast, his Republican rival, Donald Trump, maintains the progress he has made in the last four years among this community, especially among men, despite his anti-immigrant slurs.
A newspaper poll The New York Times and Siena finds that Harris has the support of a majority of these voters, 56%, while Trump receives 37%.
At first glance, the difference seems substantial: 19 percentage points. But four years ago, although Trump achieved a figure very similar to the current one, 36% of the Latino vote, the then Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, received the votes of 62% of that electorate. The difference was 26 percentage points. In 2016 the distance had been even greater: the Republican obtained 28% of those ballots, while his rival Hillary Clinton obtained 68%, a gap of 39 percentage points.
These are disturbing figures for the vice president’s campaign: the last time a Democratic candidate received less than 60% of Latino support was in 2004, when John Kerry received a resounding defeat and George W Bush was re-elected after initiating the invasion of Iraq. .
The survey finds that Trump’s attacks on immigrants, which have become more intense as the voting date approaches, have not caused a shift among Latino voters toward the vice president. Two-thirds of Latinos born on US soil consider that the former president’s threats and insults are not directed towards them; half of those born abroad and naturalized — 51% — as well.
In fact, a good part of the Hispanic electorate supports some of the harshest measures proposed by the Republican candidate against immigration, according to the survey carried out among 902 people from September 29 to October 6: a third supports the construction of a wall along along the border with Mexico and the deportation of immigrants who are in US territory illegally. Of them, the majority declare themselves supporters of the former president, but 9% of those who plan to vote for the Democrat also think in favor of this type of proposals.
The economy is, for this group, the main issue of concern: three out of ten say that it is their top priority when deciding their vote. Far behind are the right to abortion, the fundamental issue for 15% of this electorate, and immigration, important for 10%.
The gender gap that polls have detected between Harris and Trump supporters also exists among Latino voters. The majority of women lean towards the vice president, 62% compared to 31% who support the Republican, while among men support for the former president grows to 45%; 48% are in favor of the Democrat.
Both parties have tried to court Latino voters, the fastest-growing group in the United States, very actively this campaign. Just this week, the two candidates were participating in conversations with voters on the Spanish-language television network Univision.
The survey data, despite everything, indicates that nothing is yet closed and the voting trend among Hispanic voters can still change. About a quarter say they have not yet decided or are open to changing their mind, a higher proportion than the American average.